What is the Fallacy of the Maturity of Chances?

The fallacy of the maturity of chances, also known as the law of averages or gambler’s fallacy, is a common misunderstanding in the world of gambling. It is the belief that if an event has not occurred in a long time, it becomes overdue and more likely to occur in the near future.

This belief is based on the assumption that the probability of an event is affected by past events. However, probability is actually a measure of how likely an event is to occur based on the ratio of successful outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. It is not affected by past events, but rather by the inherent characteristics of the event itself.


For example, consider a coin flip. The probability of getting heads or tails is always 50% because there are only two possible outcomes. It does not matter how many times the coin has been flipped in the past or what the outcomes were – the probability of getting heads or tails on the next flip is always 50%.

The fallacy of the maturity of chances is often seen in the game of roulette. Players may believe that if a certain number has not come up in a long time, it is due to hit and they should bet on it. However, the probability of any number coming up on the roulette wheel is always the same – 1 in 38 (assuming an American roulette wheel with 38 numbered slots). Past spins do not affect the probability of a number coming up on the next spin.


This fallacy can lead to belief in hot and cold streaks, or the notion that a player is on a winning or losing streak based on previous results. While a player may experience a run of good or bad luck, this is simply due to chance and is not a reliable predictor of future outcomes.

The maturity of chances fallacy can have serious consequences for those who fall victim to it. As players continue to bet in the hope of hitting an overdue event, it can lead to irrational decision-making and excessive gambling. It can also cause financial harm because players may bet more than they can afford to lose in the hope of winning.

It is critical for gamblers to understand that past events have no bearing on the probability of an event occurring and that the law of averages does not apply.
Gambling should always be approached with an awareness of the inherent risks and the importance of making sound decisions.